Purchase Recommendation · Shortlist candidate

20 Woodlea Crescent

CRAIGIEBURN VIC 3064 · 891m² BLOCK · 4 BED · 2 BATH · 2 CAR · MEDIA ROOM

An off market 891m² block in established Craigieburn with a solid four bed, two bath plus media room home built in 2000, walking distance to Craigieburn Plaza, Central, schools and the leisure centre. Value is $830k, and the plan is to go in at $810k to $815k. Rental estimate ~$620 a week. The headline is the land: 891m² on a confirmed 26m double fronted frontage, which is what makes a genuine side by side split into two lots, each with its own street address, physically possible STCA. Double fronted blocks like this almost never come up in established Craigieburn. Standard yield is the weakest on the list, the case here is the best subdivision potential on the shortlist by a wide margin.

$830k

Value

$810k to $815k

Our offer

4 bed · 2 bath · 2 car + media room

Config

891m²

Block

~$620/wk

Rental estimate

Off market Owner Investor, property rented, held since Dec 2016, bought $510,000 Last advertised rent $400/wk in Mar 2021, likely a long term tenant under market Title Lot 219 PS425214 Zone Comprehensive Development Zone Schedule 1 (Hume) Overlays No flood or bushfire zone detected

The call

Biggest block on the shortlist, three ways to win, weakest day one cashflow

Woodlea is a land play, not a yield play. 891m² in established Craigieburn, roughly 35% more land than Dent, with a functional 152m² four bed home on it, built 2000. Off market, so no auction crowd, and the vendor is an investor nine and a half years in with a tenant likely paying well under market ($400/wk advertised in 2021 against ~$620/wk today). That profile often means a motivated, unemotional seller.

Three ways to win: (1) hold and rent standard at ~$620/wk while the land appreciates; (2) convert to a six room rooming house on the same framework as Walsh and Dent and roughly break even while holding; (3) split it side by side STCA, two lots of ~445m² on the confirmed 26m double fronted frontage, the new one with its own street address, which is the rarest thing on this shortlist and the real reason to buy.

The trade off is day one cashflow: ~3.9% gross standard, the weakest on the shortlist, and a ~$574/wk shortfall at 6.2% interest only.

Our position: this is the subdivision play on the shortlist. Value is $830k and we go in at $810k to $815k. A 26m double fronted block in established Craigieburn is rare stock, and it is the reason to buy.

The property

Functional family home on the biggest block on the list

At a glance

Configuration4 bed · 2 bath · 2 car · media room

MasterFull ensuite, walk in robe

LivingOpen plan kitchen / meals / family

Heating / coolingDucted heating + split system cooling

Floor area152m²

Year built2000

OutdoorShed, double garage

Land891m², Lot 219 PS425214, frontage confirmed at 26m

EasementEasement at the rear, does not impede a future subdivision

ZoningComprehensive Development Zone, Schedule 1 (Craigieburn Comprehensive Development Plan area; permit required to subdivide, no minimum lot size in schedule)

Value$830k

Our offer$810k to $815k

Rental estimate~$620/wk

Initial observations (pre-inspection, off market, condition unconfirmed)

Investor owned and tenanted for 9+ years. Expect wear consistent with a long tenancy. Budget for paint, floor coverings and a make good before re-letting at market.
Rent is stale. Last advertised at $400/wk in March 2021. Market for this config is ~$620/wk, immediate upside on vacant possession or renewal.
891m² on a confirmed 26m frontage. The aerial shows a deep, open front setback and a wide side yard, with the 152m² house occupying a small share of the block. At 26m wide, a split down the middle gives two lots of roughly 13m frontage each, comfortably above the width a standard detached build needs.
Easement at the rear. There is an easement along the back of the block. It sits behind the building envelope and does not impede a future subdivision or the siting of a second dwelling.
CDZ1 zoning, workable pathway. The block sits in the Craigieburn Comprehensive Development Plan area (Hume clause 37.02 Schedule 1). A permit is required to subdivide and the split must be generally in accordance with the CDP and the estate's local structure plan, but the schedule sets no minimum lot size for residential land, and in a built out estate a two lot infill split is assessed on its merits, similar to standard residential subdivision. Planner to confirm against the local structure plan.
Walk to everything. The 2021 listing marketed proximity to public transport, Craigieburn Central, Craigieburn Plaza, schools and the leisure centre. Craigieburn Primary is 750m away.
No flood or bushfire overlay detected.

Floor plan. Tap to expand

Aerial view of 20 Woodlea Crescent showing the site boundary, 26m frontage and rear easement

Aerial site boundary, 26m frontage, rear easement. Tap to expand

Why it's on the shortlist

Land, optionality, off market entry

Best subdivision potential on the shortlist, by a long way. 891m² on a confirmed 26m double fronted frontage. None of the other four actives can deliver a side by side split with a separate street address.
Biggest block on the shortlist. 891m² against Dent's 655m², William's 767m² and Simpson's 615m². Land content is the long term driver.
Two ~445m² lots STCA. Roughly 13m frontage each, both addressing the street, no battleaxe handle and no shared driveway.
Double fronted 26m block, rare stock. This is the biggest single reason it is on the list. Almost every established Craigieburn block of this era is a single fronted 12 to 16m lot where the only option is a battleaxe rear dwelling on a shared driveway. At 26m the split runs side by side, giving a second lot with its own street frontage and its own address rather than a rear unit behind someone else. Very few blocks in the suburb can do this.
Off market. No auction, no crowd, negotiable timeline. We go in at $810k to $815k against a $830k value.
Motivated vendor profile. Investor, 9.5 year hold, bought at $510k in 2016, sitting on ~$320k of paper gain and a stale rent. Sellers like this transact.
Immediate rent upside. $400/wk stale rent to ~$620/wk market. Re-let is a day one value add even before any works.
Rooming house fallback. Six room conversion on the standardised framework roughly covers the interest bill while the subdivision is worked up.

The trade-offs

What you're not getting

Weakest standard yield on the list. ~4.0% gross at an $800k buy, ~$560/wk short after interest. As a plain rental this is negative gearing, full stop.
Highest entry price of the Craigieburn pair. Roughly $150k+ more than Dent's range for the same suburb, buying land not accommodation.
Subdivision not yet de risked. The CDZ1 pathway looks workable (permit required, general accordance with the Craigieburn CDP and local structure plan, no minimum lot size in the schedule), but until a planner confirms it against the local structure plan and the frontage is measured, the split is a thesis, not a number. If it falls over, this is an expensive standard rental.
Planning approval still the gate. Frontage is confirmed at 26m and the rear easement does not impede a split, so the physical case stacks up. The remaining unknown is planning, the two lot thesis stays unpriced until the CDZ1 development plan read is done.
Condition unknown. Off market and tenanted, no recent photos. The 2016 era presentation plus 9 years of tenancy could mean a $15 to $30k make good.
Tenant in place. Possession, notice periods and the tenant's rights under the RTA shape the timeline for any conversion or subdivision works.

The numbers

Standard lease, six room rooming house, and the split

Modelled on an $812k buy (mid of our $810k to $815k offer range), stamp duty ~$44,000, interest at 6.2% interest only. Annual holding costs for the standard lease built from the cost stack: PM 5.5% ($1,773), council rates ~$2,500, landlord insurance ~$1,900, maintenance ~$1,600, water landlord portion ~$690, vacancy allowance 1 week ($620), ~$9,080 all in, ~28% of gross.

Rooming layout, 6 rooms

Room	From	Notes
Room 1	Bed 1, 3.6 × 3.6m	Largest room, keeps the ensuite and built in robe
Room 2	Bed 2, 2.7 × 5.1m	Long room to the front, own window, lockable door
Room 3	Bed 3, 3.0 × 2.7m	Robe retained, next to the main bathroom
Room 4	Bed 4, 3.0 × 2.7m	Rear of the hallway, robe retained
Room 5	Media room, 2.7 × 2.7m	Already a separate room off the entry, add lockable door, confirm natural light and ventilation minimums
Room 6	Family zone, off the 4.5 × 10.5m open plan	Framed and lined at the family end, split system added, meals and kitchen stay as the shared zone

Bathroom gap: the plan has an ensuite off Bed 1 plus a main bathroom and separate WC. Across six residents that still needs a third wet zone (shower, toilet, vanity), and the laundry sits directly between the bedroom wing and the wet areas, so it is the logical place to build it. Same play as Dent.

Setup cost, one off

Line	Amount
Builder, plans, permits, compliance (Class 1A to 1B)	$22,000
New third bathroom	$12,000 to $18,000
Furnishing and fit out, 6 rooms	$9,000 to $12,000
Additional split systems, 5 rooms	$6,000 to $7,500
Contingency 10%	$4,900 to $6,000
Total setup	~$54,000 to $65,500

Income and yield

	A · Standard lease	B · Six room rooming house
Weekly rent, gross	$620/wk	6 × ~$245/wk = $1,470/wk
Occupancy assumption	1 week vacancy	95%
Annual gross, net of vacancy	~$31,620	~$72,620
Gross yield on $812k buy	~3.9%	~8.9%
PM, utilities, insurance, council, maintenance	~$9,080/yr	~$20,000/yr
Net operating income	~$23,160/yr	~$52,620/yr
Loan interest @ 6.2%, capitalised setup	~$53,010/yr	~$56,740/yr
Net after interest	~$29,850 short (~$574/wk)	~$4,120 short (~$79/wk)
Setup, one off (excluded from annual)	Near nil beyond make good	~$54,000 to $65,500

C · The split (STCA, indicative only)

At 26m wide, 891m² splits side by side into two lots of ~445m² with roughly 13m frontage each, the new lot fronting the street with its own address rather than sitting behind the existing house on a shared driveway. That is what a double fronted block buys you, and it is why this stock is so rare. Craigieburn residential lots of that size have been transacting in the $300s. Against indicative subdivision costs of $60k to $90k (surveying, planning, civils, service connections), the gross equity uplift is potentially $200k+ before any build.

Frontage is confirmed at 26m, which supports two lots of roughly 13m each, and the rear easement does not impede a split. The zoning pathway is workable: CDZ1 (Craigieburn Comprehensive Development Plan area) requires a permit to subdivide, generally in accordance with the CDP and local structure plan, with no minimum lot size set in the schedule. Every figure in this paragraph is still unpriced until (a) the frontage is measured off PS425214, (b) a town planner confirms the split against the local structure plan, and (c) a surveyor runs the feasibility. That work costs $3k to $5k and should be a condition of pursuing the property at all.

Read: as a standard rental Woodlea is the weakest cashflow on the shortlist. The rooming conversion takes it to roughly breakeven, effectively a free hold while the subdivision is worked up. The real return is the land: rent upside now, rooming income medium term, split long term. Three ways to win, but the third one is the reason to buy.

Suburb and location

What supports the rent and the hold in Craigieburn 3064

Measure	Figure	Why it matters
Median house price	$758k	Price point for the suburb, context for an $830k value on a bigger than typical block
12 month growth	4%	Recent capital growth trend
5 year growth	20.7%	Medium term growth trend through the corridor
Median asking rent	$550/wk	A ~$620/wk estimate sits above the suburb median, consistent with 4 bed 2 bath
Days on market	31 days	How fast local stock clears
Craigieburn Primary School	750m (government, 721 students)	Walkable school catchment supports family tenant demand
LGA population, 2025	278,885 (Hume)	One of the larger and faster growing council areas in Victoria
Demand drivers	Craigieburn Central, Craigieburn Plaza, Craigieburn station on the Craigieburn line, leisure centre, Hume employment and logistics precincts	Retail, transport and jobs infrastructure already delivered rather than promised
Land supply	Active greenfield land release across the Hume corridor	New supply is the main risk to both rent growth and capital growth here

Supply and fundamentals, Craigieburn

Measure	Craigieburn	Why it matters
Stock on market	0.24%	Share of dwellings listed for sale, lower means tighter supply
Inventory	0.59 mo	Months of stock at the current sale rate, under 3 months is a sellers market
Buyer to advertiser ratio	0.11%	Demand pressure against advertised stock
Average hold period	8.23 yrs	How long owners hold, longer means less stock turns over
Renters as share of households	28%	Depth of the local tenant pool
Units as share of dwellings	5%	Lower unit share means more houses and land content
Distance to Melbourne CBD	~25 km	Commute and middle versus outer ring positioning
Population	65,178	Size of the local market
Dwellings	24,712	Total dwelling stock in the suburb
Infrastructure spend per resident	$4,638	Committed public investment flowing into the area

Distances from Woodlea Crescent to Craigieburn station and Craigieburn Central to be confirmed on inspection. The 2021 rental campaign marketed walkable proximity to public transport, Craigieburn Central and Craigieburn Plaza. Local government area population is ABS Estimated Resident Population 2025 (via economy.id). Suburb level rental vacancy is not published by SQM Research, which reports vacancy by region rather than by postcode, so no suburb vacancy figure is quoted here.

Next steps

How we play it

Planning read first. Frontage is confirmed at 26m and the rear easement clears a split, so the next step is a town planner's read of the CDZ1 development plan for Lot 219 PS425214.

Town planner on the local structure plan. CDZ1 requires subdivision to be generally in accordance with the Craigieburn Comprehensive Development Plan and the estate's local structure plan. One to two hours of planner advice confirms the two lot split before offering.

Inspect and price the make good. Nine years tenanted, walk it and budget paint, floors, and any compliance items.

Written rental appraisal. Independent PM in writing at ~$620/wk standard, plus a per room figure for the six room layout.

Surveyor feasibility, if planner is positive. Two lot concept plan and cost estimate, $3k to $5k, turns the subdivision from a story into a number.

Negotiation anchor. Value is $830k. Open at $810k to $815k. Vendor bought at $510k in 2016 with a stale $400/wk rent, so there is room to transact without a campaign.